Placement & Homes Strategy for Children and Young People 2026 to 2030

This strategy must be deliverable within the financial realities facing the council. To that end, our sufficiency response is underpinned by detailed cost modelling that aligns investment with projected savings, mitigates overspend risk, and builds long-term financial resilience.

Buckinghamshire has experienced increasing pressure on its placements budget, driven by:

• Growth in high-cost spot-purchased residential placements
• Limited internal capacity forcing external placements
• Inflationary uplift in provider rates
• Placement breakdowns leading to reactive and expensive arrangements

For 2026/27, a 7% growth in placement budget is included within the Medium-Term Financial Plan (MTFP), driven by the continued change in placement mix (e.g., increased reliance on high-cost placements, complexity of need) rather than a rise in overall CLA numbers. This is supported by business intelligence forecasts which show a steady decrease in CLA population, despite historic trends suggesting growth.

In addition to the base growth, a 2.96% inflationary uplift has also been applied for 2026/27, further compounding placement cost pressures across residential and fostering services.

Without strategic intervention, these trends risk escalating further.

Our modelling shows that by maintaining the current trajectory, costs would continue to increase by [7%] per annum, placing unsustainable pressure on the Medium-Term Financial Plan (MTFP).

This strategy involves targeted investment in:

• Capital development of residential homes (funded by DfE grant and RCC capital)
• Therapeutic fostering (ACE model and Mockingbird hubs)
• Supported accommodation for care leavers (via RCC and council-owned properties)

Funding sources include:

• Department for Education’s Children’s Homes Capital Grant (£1,833,702)
• Council capital programme allocation (£9,350,298)
• Non-ringfenced sufficiency and innovation grants
• Reinvestment of savings from reduced reliance on external placements

These figures represent the combined operating costs and projected savings from both the original three homes and the 10 homes funded by the £11.7 million capital programme. they reflect confirmed programme delivery milestones and supersede previous MTFP assumptions.

Our model assumes:

• Successful registration and full occupancy of new homes within 6 to 9 months
• Reduction in external residential use from 85% to 55% by 2028
• Carer recruitment targets met to reduce IFA reliance
• Improved placement stability reducing churn-related costs

These assumptions will be regularly stress-tested, and a sufficiency finance subgroup will oversee delivery against projected savings.

Ultimately, this strategy is about delivering better outcomes and better value. A local, stable, therapeutic system not only costs less in the long run – it also supports permanence, wellbeing, and life chances for our children.