Placement & Homes Strategy for Children and Young People 2026 to 2030

Effective sufficiency planning must be grounded in a clear understanding of the children we care for, their characteristics, and the types of support they require. Buckinghamshire’s looked-after population has evolved over recent years, with both the volume and complexity of need increasing.

Key Demand Trends:

• Rising overall numbers: The number of looked-after children in Buckinghamshire has steadily increased, mirroring national trends. At the end of March 2025 there were 523 looked-after children in Buckinghamshire, which was an increase of 8% from 2020. In the same period, the number of looked-after children in England increased by 5%.
• Age profile shift: There is a marked increase in adolescents entering care, particularly those aged 13–17.
• Mental health and emotional wellbeing: Children are presenting with greater mental health needs, often requiring specialist therapeutic input and tailored placement support.
• Disproportionate representation: Boys and children of the global majority are overrepresented in care, requiring culturally competent placement options. Boys make up 60% of the current looked after children cohort, and children from ethnic groups other than white British account for 45% of the cohort, compared to 35% in the general 0- 17 population of Buckinghamshire (ONS data). This over representation highlights the need for culturally competent and gender-responsive placement options. It also informs sufficiency planning, requiring targeted foster care recruitment, enhanced training on cultural competence and identity needs and support services tailored to boys and global majority children to improve placement stability and outcomes.
• Future Demand Profile: forecast modelling suggests that the total number of children looked after in Buckinghamshire is expected to reach 542 by 2030, a modest 3% increase from the April 2025 baseline of 523, assuming current trends in starters and leavers remain consistent. However, when excluding unaccompanied asylum-seeking children (UASC), projections indicate a more significant shift: the CLA population is expected to decline to 455 by 2030, representing an 18% decrease. This forecasted reduction reflects a greater number of children exiting care relative to those entering in 2024 – 25 and should inform our long-term commissioning decisions - particularly around fostering and step down capacity
• UASC arrivals: The number of unaccompanied asylum-seeking children has risen, placing additional pressure on placement availability and requiring distinct support pathways. From March 22 to July 25, we have cared for141 UASCs via the National Transfer scheme. 63 of these UASCs were looked after in foster placements and 78 in supported accommodation. Our reliance on external placements remains high, especially for complex residential care. Of 527 CLA we have placed 73 children in external Residential placements that are 20+ miles outside the LA boundary, 13 are placed in external provisions within the LA boundary. 25 of these CYP are under the age of 13. A significant proportion of children are placed out of county, often at considerable distance from family and community ties.
• Forecasting Future Placement Needs: Our business intelligence modelling has projected future placement needs by analysing CLA starter and leaver rates and forecasting against key placement types. These projections incorporate planned capital developments and assume consistent practise and demand trends over time.

Based on current trajectory we anticipate the following by 2030:

• A sustained reduction in external residential use, particularly for non UASC children, with external residential placements falling by 11% if internal capacity (e.g. Wave 1 homes) is utilised as planned.
• A continued need for investment in internal fostering to meet demand for non-residential care. Particularly for adolescents and those stepping down from residential Children’s homes.
• Capacity planning for the 36-bed extension of in-house residential provision remains on track. The model shows our projected need of 33 - 35 internal residential beds by 2030, well within our target of 49 beds (inclusive of three additional council owned homes under consideration).
• This confirms that our residential strategy is both realistic and deliverable. Today, 85% of residential placements are external and 15% in-house. By 2029, this will shift to 55% external and 45% in-house - bringing more children home and improving sustainability.

Identified Sufficiency Gaps:

• Lack of therapeutic residential provision in-county.
• Insufficient foster carers for teenagers, children with complex behaviours, and sibling groups.
• Limited supported accommodation options for 16–18-year-olds.
• Insufficient options for young people who require more specialist provisions including those with high level LD needs and those that pose a significant risk to themselves or others. The examples below are the areas where we struggle to find suitable placement:
• Mental Health – has been difficult to place particularly young girls with SIB, suicidal ideation, suicidal attempts – risk around misadventure.
• CCE (Child Criminal Exploitation) – drugs and gang affiliated – teenage males who are subject to exploitation – are often both a victim and perpetrator of crime.
• Property damage/ aggression – Particularly males who present with these behaviours and referrals reflect significant amounts of property damage and aggression towards others.

Progress and future planning:

We have made progress in some areas, particularly through our residential development programme and increased use of special guardianship orders. Between April 2024 and March 2025, 23 SGO’s were granted, an increase on 18 the previous year. There is a clear offer of postorder support for Special Guardians, which encourages the uptake of permanent orders. However, the scale of change required means we must continue to invest, innovate, and partner differently.