Placement & Homes Strategy for Children and Young People 2026 to 2030

This strategy must be deliverable within the financial realities facing the council. To that end, our sufficiency response is underpinned by detailed cost modelling that aligns investment with projected savings, mitigates overspend risk, and builds long-term financial resilience.

Buckinghamshire has experienced increasing pressure on its placements budget, driven by:

• Growth in high-cost spot-purchased residential placements
• Limited internal capacity forcing external placements
• Inflationary uplift in provider rates
• Placement breakdowns leading to reactive and expensive arrangements

For 2026/27, a 7% growth in placement budget is included within the Medium-Term Financial Plan (MTFP), driven by the continued change in placement mix (e.g., increased reliance on high-cost placements, complexity of need) rather than a rise in overall CLA numbers. This is supported by business intelligence forecasts which show a steady decrease in CLA population, despite historic trends suggesting growth.

In addition to the base growth, a 2.96% inflationary uplift has also been applied for 2026/27, further compounding placement cost pressures across residential and fostering services.

Without strategic intervention, these trends risk escalating further.

Our modelling shows that by maintaining the current trajectory, costs would continue to increase by [7%] per annum, placing unsustainable pressure on the Medium-Term Financial Plan (MTFP).

This strategy involves targeted investment in:

• Capital development of residential homes (funded by DfE grant and RCC capital)
• Therapeutic fostering (ACE model and Mockingbird hubs)
• Supported accommodation for care leavers (via RCC and council-owned properties)

Funding sources include:

• Department for Education’s Children’s Homes Capital Grant (£1,833,702)
• Council capital programme allocation (£9,350,298)
• Non-ringfenced sufficiency and innovation grants
• Reinvestment of savings from reduced reliance on external placements

These figures represent the combined operating costs and projected savings from both the original three homes and the 10 homes funded by the £11.7 million capital programme. they reflect confirmed programme delivery milestones and supersede previous MTFP assumptions.

These figures are cumulative and represent an annual net saving of £7 million per year from 2028 to 29 onwards.

Investment and savings figures are based on combined capital (property acquisition and renovation) and revenue (staffing, therapeutic input, operational delivery) costs. Estimated savings include the avoided weekly cost differential between external and in-house placements. Projections assume full occupancy within 6 - 9 months of Ofsted registration, phased recruitment targets achieved, and a safe, staged reduction in external market use aligned to CLA forecast modelling.

A more detailed financial assessment of the residential programme confirms the projected return on investment (ROI) of 90% over 5 years, five years and 367% over 10 years, based on actual cost and savings data across the 13 new homes. The payback period for the initial £11.2 million capital investment is five years and 10 months. These ROI calculations further validate the long-term value of the in-house residential programme, particularly in the context of rising private placement costs and the volatility of the external provider market.

Forecasting projections further validate the need to maintain a consistent pace of transition from external to internal placements. If all in-house residential beds are delivered and occupied as planned, the model projects that demand for external residential placements will drop by 11% by 2030, particularly among non-UASC children. This supports. the delivery of the projected 367% ROI over 10 years and informs a safe, staged reduction in reliance on external providers.

The revised phasing of home openings and the decision to delay operational use until full Ofsted registration has led to a forecast variance of £7.364 million against the original 2025 - 26 medium term financial plan (MTFP). This variance is driven primarily by a reduction in planned savings this year, which are now expected to be delivered over a longer period in line with the adjusted delivery profile.

Several mitigations have already been identified:

• £5.32 million in savings from early elimination of unregistered placements (ahead of plan),
• £715k over delivery from the Fostering programme based on placement activity already underway,
• A strong pipeline of additional foster care is expected to generate further unprofiled savings before year end.

Taken together, these reduce the residual shortfall in 2025 - 26 to approximately £1.29 million. This will be managed through the Children’s Services MTFP refresh process for 2026 - 27 onwards. The updated assumptions will also be reflected in the capital and revenue alignment for phase two of the homes programme.

Our model assumes:

• Successful registration and full occupancy of new homes within 6 to 9 months
• Reduction in external residential use from 85% to 55% by 2028
• Carer recruitment targets met to reduce IFA reliance
• Improved placement stability reducing churn-related costs

These assumptions will be regularly stress-tested, and a sufficiency finance subgroup will oversee delivery against projected savings.

Ultimately, this strategy is about delivering better outcomes and better value. A local, stable, therapeutic system not only costs less in the long run – it also supports permanence, wellbeing, and life chances for our children.