Placement & Homes Strategy for Children and Young People 2026 to 2030
Risk, mitigation and contingency planning
A strong strategy must account for both foreseeable and unforeseen risks. Buckinghamshire’s sufficiency programme operates in a highly dynamic environment – shaped by external markets, workforce capacity, regulatory change, and the complex needs of children and young people.
This section outlines key strategic and operational risks, with associated mitigation actions and contingency responses.
Strategic and Delivery Risks
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inability to recruit and retain foster carers and residential staff | High | High | Enhanced recruitment packages, wellbeing offer, Mockingbird support model, and ongoing training investment |
| Delays in children’s home capital works and Ofsted registration | Medium | High | Strengthened project governance, early Ofsted engagement, and phased property programme with fallback sites identified; Homes will no longer open prior to Ofsted registration in line with our revised risk appetite, and the sector wide regulatory shift away from unregulated provision |
| Increase in high-cost placement demand (e.g. UASC, mental health crises) | Medium | Medium | Maintain contingency budget, flex commissioning arrangements, and increase spot placement controls |
| Market destabilisation or provider failure | Medium | High | Regular market oversight, proactive engagement strategy, dynamic purchasing system (DPS) re-procurement |
| Sufficiency savings not realised as profiled | Medium | High | Monthly financial review, early intervention escalation, and scenario planning against worst-case profiles |
| Workforce capacity to implement the change programme | Medium | Medium | PMO oversight, delivery leads assigned per workstream, phased roll-out to reduce pressure points |
| Poor Ofsted inspection outcome or delayed registration impacts children’s home occupancy and confidence in provision | Medium | High | Early engagement with Ofsted; regular pre-registration QA walkthroughs; compliance tracker monitored via DMT and residential programme board; phased occupancy aligned with readiness |
Contingency and Surge Planning
To build resilience, we are also developing contingency and surge response mechanisms, including:
- Spot purchasing protocol with clear thresholds and escalation controls
- Pre-identified emergency placement options (internal and external)
- Temporary surge staffing pool for residential homes
- Use of step-down and Staying Close provision to flex capacity for 16+
- In the event of significant provider failure or market withdrawal, Buckinghamshire will also activate contingency arrangements through the Regional Care Cooperative (RCC). This includes access to mutual aid protocols, shared commissioning frameworks, and escalation to the RCC emergency commissioning forum to maintain continuity of care and safe placement access for high-risk cohorts.
These mechanisms will be kept under live review by the Children’s Sufficiency Board and updated annually.
Ongoing Assurance
Risks and mitigations will be overseen by the:
- Children’s Services SLT (quarterly sufficiency delivery review)
- Corporate Parenting Panel (annual updating report to be reworded)
- Finance and Transformation Boards (financial assurance)
- Strategic Commissioning Group (market engagement and delivery assurance)
By planning for volatility and embedding systemic responses, we are building a sufficiency system that is resilient, proactive, and child-focused.